Toncoin (TON) has surged by over 50% prior to now week, fueled by news that Telegram founder Pavel Durov has been granted permission to go away France for Dubai.
TON/USDT weekly worth chart. Supply: TradingView
TON’s bullish reversal, particularly after falling to $2.35, its lowest degree in a yr, has merchants eyeing key worth ranges, with crypto analyst Crypto Patel highlighting a “nice entry zone” for long-term traders.
TON is eyeing a 100% rally in 2025
As Crypto Patel notes, TON’s worth has “completely bounced” from its help degree of round $2.50.
Moreover, the help falls contained in the $2.40-3.00 space that served as resistance in December 2022-April 2023 and September 2023-April 2024 durations. The analyst argues that the world now served as a “nice entry zone,” citing TON’s ongoing rebound from the identical vary.
TON/USDT weekly worth chart. Supply: TradingView/Crypto Patel
A decisive rebound from the $2.40-3.00 zone may have TON goal its prevailing descending trendline resistance within the coming weeks, which can push its worth towards $5 by June or July.
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The upside outlook aligns with analyst Profit Mind’s falling wedge setup, which anticipates the Toncoin worth to develop towards the $6 upside goal if it breaks above the wedge’s higher trendline.
TON/USDT day by day worth chart. Supply: TradingView
Falling wedges usually resolve when the worth breaks above the higher trendline and rises by as a lot because the sample’s most peak.
Analyst Crypto Billion additional anticipates a bullish reversal in TON markets, citing its oversold relative strength index (RSI) as a main catalyst for potential long-term accumulation.
Supply: Crypto Billion
Toncoin’s Sharpe ratio, a monetary metric used to measure an asset’s risk-adjusted returns, additional signifies oversold circumstances within the TON market.
As of March 16, the 180-day common ratio had dropped under -25, as denoted in blue. Prior to now, TON has undergone bullish reversals largely when its Sharpe ratio turned blue, as seen in late 2022 and mid-2023.
TON Sharpe ratio (180 days). Supply: CryptoQuant
TON shorts stay dominant
Within the derivatives market, Toncoin is witnessing a resurgence in its open interest (OI) — a metric monitoring the entire variety of unsettled TON contracts resembling choices and futures.
As of March 16, TON’s OI was round $169.12 million, in comparison with $80.75 million simply 5 days prior.
TON Futures’ OI and funding charges. Supply: CoinGlass
On the flip facet, TON’s weekly funding charges are treading round detrimental territory — they marginally rose into optimistic territory after plunging to -0.678% earlier on March 16.
When funding charges flip detrimental as OI rises, it usually displays bearish sentiment with aggressive shorting. The 30-day liquidation map monitoring TON/USDT on Bybit dangers practically $10 million in lengthy liquidations if the Toncoin worth falls towards $2.54.
Bybit TON/USDT 30-day liquidation map (as of March 16). Supply: Coinglass
Conversely, the identical liquidation map reveals that roughly $12 million value of quick positions could possibly be in danger if TON surpasses the $4 mark.
If this situation performs out, the cascading impact of pressured buybacks may speed up Toncoin’s upward momentum, sending the worth to the aforementioned ranges.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
