Bitcoin (BTC) staged a pointy rebound after US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for non-retaliating international locations, reigniting bullish momentum and elevating hopes for a possible surge towards the $100,000 mark.
On April 9, BTC/USD surged by roughly 9%, reversing a lot of the losses it incurred earlier within the week, to retest $83,000. In doing so, the pair got here nearer to validating a falling wedge sample that has been forming on its each day chart since December 2024.
A falling wedge sample types when the worth traits decrease inside a spread outlined by two converging, descending trendlines.
In an ideal state of affairs, the setup resolves when the worth breaks decisively above the higher trendline and rises by as a lot as the utmost distance between the higher and decrease trendlines.
BTC/USD each day worth chart ft. falling wedge breakout setup. Supply: TradingView
As of April 9, Bitcoin’s worth was confined inside the falling wedge vary whereas eyeing a breakout above its higher trendline at round $83,000. Whether it is confirmed, BTC’s most important upside goal by June may very well be round $100,000.
Conversely, a rejection from the higher trendline might elevate the chance of Bitcoin retreating deeper inside the wedge sample, doubtlessly sliding toward the apex near $71,100.
Supply: Merlijn The Trader
If a breakout happens after testing the $71,100 degree, essentially the most conservative upside goal for BTC might nonetheless be as excessive as $91,500.
Onchain information helps $100,000 Bitcoin outlook
Bitcoin’s rebound seems simply earlier than testing a crucial onchain assist zone between $65,000 and $71,000, reinforcing the cryptocurrency’s bullish outlook towards the 100,000 mark.
Notably, the $65,000-71,000 vary relies on two essential Bitcoin metrics—lively realized worth ($71,000) and the true market imply ($65,000).
Bitcoin short-term onchain value foundation bands. Supply: Glassnode
These metrics estimate the typical worth at which present, lively buyers purchased their Bitcoin. They filter out cash that have not moved in a very long time or are doubtless misplaced, giving a comparatively correct image of the associated fee foundation for these nonetheless taking part out there.
Up to now, Bitcoin has spent about half the time buying and selling above this worth vary and half under, making it a superb indicator of whether or not the market is feeling optimistic or damaging, based on Glassnode analysts.
“We now have confluence throughout a number of onchain worth fashions, highlighting the $65k to $71k worth vary as a crucial space of curiosity for the bulls to determine long-term assist,” they wrote in a recent weekly analysis, including:
“Ought to worth commerce meaningfully under this vary, a super-majority of lively buyers can be underwater on their holdings, with doubtless damaging impacts on mixture sentiment to observe.”
Associated: Bitcoin has ‘fully decoupled’ despite tariff turmoil, says Adam Back
Bitcoin’s worst-case state of affairs is a decline towards $50,000
Breaking under the $65,000-71,000 vary might worsen Bitcoin’s likelihood of retesting $100,000 anytime quickly. Such declines would additionally result in the worth breaking under its 50-week exponential shifting common (50-week EMA; the crimson wave).
BTC/USD weekly worth chart. Supply: TradingView
The 50-week EMA—close to $77,760 as of April 9—has traditionally acted as a dynamic assist throughout bull markets and a resistance throughout bear markets, making it a vital trend-defining degree.
Shedding this assist might open the door for a steeper pullback towards the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at round $50,000. Earlier breakdowns under the 50-week EMA have resulted in comparable declines, specifically throughout the 2021-2022 and 2019-2020 bear cycles.
A rebound, alternatively, raises the chance of a $100,000 retest.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
