Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin AVIV Ratio stays under historic peak ranges, indicating a possible climb above $330,000 earlier than a cycle prime is confirmed.
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Over-the-counter Bitcoin holdings are down considerably in 2025, pointing to strategic accumulation by Technique, Metaplanet, BlackRock and others.
Bitcoin (BTC) worth has had a rocky month, however current evaluation signifies that BTC might surge one other 300% this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen’s X post highlights the AVIV Ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s lively capitalization (cash in movement) to its complete invested capitalization (realized capital, excluding miner rewards).
Traditionally, when the AVIV Ratio crosses its +3σ imply deviation, it has signaled a cycle prime. For instance, BTC was $1,200 in 2013, close to $20,000 in 2017, and round $69,000 in 2021. Presently, the AVIV Ratio’s stage stays under these previous peaks, suggesting Bitcoin might climb to not less than $330,000 this cycle, earlier than the +3σ imply deviation situation is met.
The AVIV Ratio gives a novel lens on market dynamics, reflecting investor exercise versus locked-in worth. A spike signifies heightened buying and selling or profit-taking, usually previous main worth actions. Van Lagen’s evaluation ties this to Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, the place post-ATH rallies have traditionally delivered vital positive aspects. Nevertheless, its predictive accuracy lacks validation in various market circumstances, and volatility stays a wildcard.
Including to the narrative, knowledge from CryptoQuant reveals a notable shift: Bitcoin holdings on over-the-counter (OTC) desks have dropped from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This decline suggests giant buyers are shifting holdings off exchanges, probably signaling decreased promoting strain or a shift towards long-term storage.
The declining balances at OTC desks this 12 months stem from strategic accumulation by institutional buyers, led by Technique’s aggressive shopping for, and new entrants like Metaplanet, which has amassed 10,000 BTC, alongside strong web inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs, which complete $128.18 billion in web worth. BlackRock’s crypto portfolio additionally holds greater than $70 billion in BTC, which sums up the present intent of main buyers out there.
📊MARKET UPDATE: #BlackRock added one other $250 million in #Bitcoin on June 17 — marking six straight days of shopping for, now totaling $1.4 billion.
Its present $BTC holding is valued at over $70 billion. 🤯
(h/t: @arkham) pic.twitter.com/JmjNAu2kDY
— Cointelegraph Markets & Analysis (@CointelegraphMT) June 18, 2025
Related: 25% Bitcoin price rally set to follow today’s correction if history repeats
Energy legislation places Bitcoin worth goal between $220,000 and $330,000
Much like Van Lagen’s $330,000 worth goal, another study by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With outlined a comparable cycle prime for BTC. With’s evaluation leverages a 365-day easy shifting common (SMA) aligned with an influence legislation mannequin (R²=0.96), projecting Bitcoin’s worth might attain $220,000 to $330,000 on this cycle.
Presently buying and selling round $104,000, BTC would wish a 100% to 200% surge to hit these ranges, according to historic peaks the place costs doubled or tripled above the facility legislation trendline.
With’s mannequin challenges assumptions of diminishing volatility, exhibiting Bitcoin’s worth cycles retain vital swings, as evidenced by regular deviations from the trendline. Whereas optimistic, the researcher cautions that the evaluation attracts from solely 4 market cycles, urging skepticism.
Likewise, Cointelegraph reported {that a} checklist of 30 bull market peak indicators from CoinGlass suggests Bitcoin might climb to $230,000, with none signaling a cycle prime regardless of BTC reaching $112,000. Metrics like Pi Cycle High and MVRV present the bull market has room to run, supporting With’s optimistic outlook.
Related: Bitcoin below $100K now ‘less likely’ as BTC price eyes liquidity at $106K
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
