Bitcoin upside could stop at $100K despite $3B in ETF inflows

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Key factors:

  • Excessive Bitcoin ETF inflows do not at all times sign a worth prime as historic information is combined.

  • Spot Bitcoin inflows typically precede short-term worth rises, not reversals.

  • Bitcoin could hit $100K however faces resistance.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) worth restoration could also be stalled at $100,000 as questions emerge whether or not excessive ETF inflows have at all times marked the native prime for the asset.

Does $1B Bitcoin ETF inflows sign a prime?

Bitcoin has displayed bullish momentum after recovering from its multimonth lows of $74,400. BTC is up 8% during the last seven days, as per information from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView

Bitcoin’s restoration was fueled by excessive investor urge for food for spot ETFs, which recorded $3.06 billion net weekly inflows, the most important since December 2025.

Proof of whether or not the excessive spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows might sign that the worth is getting near a neighborhood prime could possibly be decided by analyzing historic information.

Whereas there have been situations the place vital inflows coincided with or preceded Bitcoin worth peaks, this has not at all times been the case.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Supply: Glassnode 

The chart above exhibits that in March 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs noticed file inflows of over $1 billion on March 12, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone receiving $849 million.

This preceded Bitcoin’s new all-time excessive of round $73,300, suggesting a possible prime sign. Equally, on June 3, 2024, each day inflows hit $917 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s rally from $67,000 to $72,000, adopted by a 25% correction to $53,000. These circumstances assist the concept of main inflows previous native tops.

Nevertheless, in November 2024, weekly inflows hit $3.38 billion, as Bitcoin hit one all-time excessive after one other, however this didn’t instantly result in a worth prime. As a substitute, BTC confirmed resilience crossing the $100,000 market for the first time to its earlier all-time highs of $108,000 reached on Dec. 17, 2025.

Utilizing a Vector Autoregression mannequin, market analytics useful resource FalconX demonstrated the connection between ETF web flows and Bitcoin worth, and located that inflows have short-term predictive energy for worth will increase, not essentially reversals.

Associated: A ‘local top’ and $88K retest? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

How excessive can Bitcoin worth go?

Bitcoin’s 27% rally from the $74,400 vary low noticed it flip key ranges into assist, together with the 50-day ($85,100), 100-day ($90,570), and 200-day ($89,300) easy shifting averages (SMA).

Bitcoin was nonetheless consolidating beneath the resistance at $95,000 as noticed by standard analyst AlphaBTC.

“The pink field [at the $95,000 level] has held $BTC’s worth for the previous couple of days, as anticipated,” AlphaBTC said in an April 28 submit on X, hoping to see BTC transfer previous it because the week opens.

Cointelegraph earlier reported that the $95,000 degree marks the next significant resistance for Bitcoin and that continued ETF demand and different bullish components can be key in overcoming it.

AlphaBTC added:

“I feel we push to 100K, however then possible see a much bigger pullback.”

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Supply: AlphaBTC

Information from monitoring useful resource CoinGlass exhibits vital vendor curiosity throughout the $97,000-$100,000 vary over the previous three months.

This implies that Bitcoin’s worth may rise additional to take the liquidity at $100,000 earlier than staging a pullback.

BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Supply: CoinGlass

Keith Alan, co-founder of buying and selling useful resource Materials Indicators, doubted the flexibility of BTC/USD to maintain a visit above $95,000. Whereas buying and selling agency QCP Capital argued that Bitcoin lacked a “catalyst” to propel it towards $100,000 in the interim.

This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.