Solana (SOL) worth accomplished a “demise cross” on the one-day chart on March 12, because the altcoin consolidated close to its long-term help degree at $125.
This might probably speed up the SOL worth sell-off within the close to time period for a drop under $100 for the primary time since February 2024.
Solana’s 1-day chart. Supply: Cointelegraph/TradingView
A demise cross happens when a bearish crossover happens between the 50-day and 200-day easy transferring averages (SMAs), with the long-term indicator above the short-term indicator.
Final month, the 50-day and 200-day exponential transferring averages (EMAs) triggered a demise cross on Solana’s one-day chart, after which costs dropped 17%, from $137 to $122.
Whereas the SMA and EMA demise crosses carry related implications, the EMA triggers the demise cross quicker because it responds extra rapidly to cost adjustments. A double demise cross from the SMA and EMA will seemingly enhance the potential of a correction.
Traditionally, the chances are impartial for Solana. Since its inception, SOL’s worth has witnessed a demise cross 3 times (together with 2025) when costs have been on a 90-day or greater downtrend.
The primary demise cross in 2022 triggered a 90% collapse, however the FTX’s fiasco escalated its severity. The second demise cross occurred in September 2024, however it reversed inside a month, resulting in the Trump rally.
Related: 3 reasons why Ethereum can outperform its rivals after crashing to 17-month lows
But, the present construction and sentiment mirror the 2022 demise cross once we examine market circumstances. On each events, a brand new all-time excessive preceded the downtrend, which led to the demise cross.
As Cointelegraph reported, Solana’s income dropped 93% since January, dropping from $238 million to $32 million. This means a present lack of exercise on Solana’s community after the top of the memecoin frenzy.
Can Solana merchants defend $125?
Primarily based on its technicals, Solana stays in a tough spot when evaluating earlier demise cross returns and collective market sentiment.
Solana should maintain help between $125 and $110 for a bullish reversal. Since March 2024, SOL costs have rebounded six instances after testing the help vary, closing above $125 on every weekly retest.
Solana 1-week chart. Supply: Cointelegraph/TradingView
A weekly shut under $125 will sign market weak point, probably growing the probability of a drop under $100. The speedy worth goal after $110 is round $80 for Solana, which is a big 30% correction. The downtrend goal carries confluence with the weekly 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line.
Solana bullish divergences on the 1-day and 4-hour chart. Supply: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Nevertheless, the bulls will pin their hopes on a bullish divergence between the worth and relative energy index (RSI) on the 1-day and 4-hour charts.
If Solana manages to keep away from one other decrease low, the divergences will stay legitimate, which might push costs greater above $125, enabling Solana to keep away from a drop under $100 and probably set up a backside at $112.
Related: Will Bitcoin price reclaim $95K before the end of March?
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
