Key takeaways:
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SOL/ETH has damaged under a rising wedge sample, signaling a possible 40% decline.
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Solana’s memecoin income has collapsed since April, weakening its core worth proposition.
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Customary Chartered warns Solana could underperform as Ethereum’s L2 ecosystem grows extra aggressive.
Solana’s (SOL) multiyear outperformance towards Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is shedding momentum, with technical breakdowns and weakening onchain exercise pointing to a possible sharp decline within the SOL/ETH pair subsequent.
SOL enters rising wedge breakdown stage
As of Might 29, the SOL/ETH pair has confirmed a breakdown from its multimonth rising wedge sample, a bearish construction that always precedes important declines.
In technical phrases, a rising wedge breakdown sometimes leads to a drop equal to the sample’s most top.
For SOL/ETH, this initiatives a draw back goal for July, close to 0.038 ETH, representing a 40% decline from present ranges.
The 50-week exponential shifting common (50-week EMA; the purple wave) round 0.0628 ETH is providing interim help. A decisive weekly shut under this degree would doubtless affirm the bearish continuation towards the 0.038 ETH goal.
A bounce, then again, may have SOL reclaim the wedge’s decrease trendline as help, which can delay the breakdown situation. Breaking above the wedge’s higher trendline will doubtless invalidate the 40% crash setup altogether.
Cooling memecoin frenzy hints at SOL/ETH crash
The breakdown in SOL/ETH aligns with a visual decline in memecoin-driven exercise on Solana.
A key indicator is Pump.enjoyable, the biggest memecoin launch platform on the community, which exhibits a pointy drop in day by day price income since early April.
Every day charges peaked in Q1 2025 however have since fallen to near-yearly lows, signaling diminished speculative exercise on the chain, according to Dune Analytics.
The platform had been a major contributor to Solana’s revenue growth, particularly between December 2024 and March 2025.
Throughout this era, complete cumulative charges surged previous 3 million SOL as retail merchants flooded the community to launch and commerce meme tokens. These metrics have crashed ever since, weakening considered one of Solana’s main worth drivers.
A Might 27 report from Standard Chartered additional reinforces the draw back narrative. The financial institution warned that Solana could underperform if it can not diversify past memecoins, which presently dominate its transaction exercise.
Customary Chartered mentioned that Ethereum is gaining floor with scalable layer-2 options that supply comparable charges and deeper infrastructure for real-world purposes.
Associated: Ethereum flashes ‘altseason’ signal as ETH price eyes $4.1K
Chartist Alex Clay asserts {that a} so-called “Ethereum outperformance season” has already arrived, reiterating confidence within the rising wedge breakdown on the SOL/ETH charts.
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
