Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows fall, but BTC whale activity points to bull market acceleration

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Key takeaways:

  • Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped over 90% from $3 billion to $228 million in 4 weeks.

  • Whereas sturdy ETF inflows typically drive Bitcoin rallies, current information exhibits value actions can happen independently.

  • Regardless of short-term promoting strain, long-term BTC whale shopping for suggests a possible continuation of the BTC uptrend.

The Bitcoin (BTC) market posted a 90+% drop in spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, falling from $3 billion within the final week of April to simply $228 million this week.

Traditionally, a slowdown in ETF inflows has impacted BTC value, notably when day by day inflows averaged over $1.5 billion for consecutive weeks. To grasp the potential influence on Bitcoin, let’s look at 4 key durations of serious spot ETF exercise and their correlation with BTC value actions.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Spot Bitcoin ETFs’ internet inflows. Supply: SoSoValue

In Q1 2024, from Feb. 2 to March 15, the spot ETFs recorded $11.39 billion in internet inflows over seven weeks, driving a 57% value surge. Nonetheless, BTC costs peaked in week 5, as $4.8 billion inflows within the closing two weeks didn’t push its worth larger.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin 1-week chart. Supply: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Equally, Q3 2024 noticed $16.8 billion in inflows over 9 weeks from Oct. 18 to Dec. 13, fueling a 66% rally. Nonetheless, when inflows slowed within the tenth week, Bitcoin’s value dropped 9%, reinforcing the hyperlink between ETF flows and value corrections. 

In Q1 2025, $3.8 billion in inflows over two weeks (Jan. 17–24) coincided with a brand new all-time excessive of $110,000 on Jan. 20, however total costs fell 4.8%.  

Most lately, Q2 2025 (April 25–Might 9) noticed $5.8 billion in inflows and a 22% value rally, although Bitcoin had already gained 8% within the prior two weeks regardless of unfavorable netflows.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin value and spot ETFs correlation. Knowledge supply: SoSoValue, Cointelegraph

This information challenges the notion that spot ETF inflows persistently drive costs. Whereas Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 counsel sturdy inflows gas rallies, Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 present costs can stagnate or fall regardless of important inflows. The Q2 2025 rally, partially unbiased of spot ETF exercise, hints at different drivers like easing US tariffs, retail curiosity or Bitcoin whale accumulation.

With inflows now at $228 million, the historic development leans bearish, suggesting a possible correction. Nonetheless, a counterargument emerges from current whale exercise, which paints a extra bullish image.

Related: 6 signs predicting $140K as Bitcoin’s next price top

Bitcoin faces promoting strain, however whales could retain the development

Bitcoin displays short-term promoting strain because the Purchase/Promote Strain Delta turns unfavorable, in response to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson. The chart shows that whales are beginning to offload BTC between $105,000 and $100,000, a degree flagged as dangerous by Wedson. This bearish shift, with a unfavorable cumulative quantity delta, signifies promoting strain within the brief time period.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin Purchase/Promote Strain Delta. Supply: X.com

But, long-term shopping for strain stays sturdy, suggesting this dip is a correction, not a reversal. Knowledge from CryptoQuant highlights that whales are taking comparatively fewer earnings within the present interval than in earlier value peaks. Nameless analyst Blitzz Buying and selling noted,

“In comparison with earlier rallies, we will see that whales have taken considerably much less revenue throughout this current surge. This might point out that the upward development could proceed. This chart needs to be monitored carefully.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin Whales. Supply: CryptoQuant

Related: Bitcoin bulls aim for new all-time highs by next week as capital inflows soar

This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.